China 's alumina market strong pattern

Domestic alumina prices from 2,600 yuan / ton up to 3,600 yuan / ton, prompting the domestic alumina market participants mentality has undergone enormous changes. At present the domestic alumina market, alumina manufacturers generally very price, but the mentality of different prices: part of the alumina enterprises continue to substantially increase the offer to lead the market higher, but the volume is limited; another part of the manufacturers prices to rise to sign the amount of signing, So that alumina profits "pocket for security." Therefore, the current amount of alumina signed all the increase, but the signing price slightly disorderly. Alumina prices in the case of deceleration, brokers have clear inventory-based, take a small amount of replenishment strategy. Here we quantify the alumina market data "

 

1, the price

 

The major spot market in Shanxi alumina, for example, since 2016 spot transaction price from 1680 yuan / ton up to 2620 yuan / ton, or 55.95%.

 

2, production

 

According to statistics, from January to October 2016 China's alumina production 48,651,000 tons, up only 1.95% year on year.

 

3, the cost

 

Since 2016 the cost of alumina is rising trend, a quarter of the cost driver is from the coal, caustic soda and other raw material prices. The third quarter of environmental supervision caused by the domestic bauxite (especially in Shanxi, Henan) yield greatly affected, bauxite prices rose rapidly, share the cost of alumina. It is estimated that in September the weighted average cost of domestic alumina 2052 yuan / ton. Coupled with the recent impact of ultra-Qiyun, raw material prices are pushed further, is expected in October the average cost of domestic alumina will rise to 2,200 yuan / ton in the vicinity.

 

4, supply and demand balance

 

Demand, according to statistics from January to October 2016, China's electrolytic aluminum production of 26.6199 million tons, an increase of 5% (significantly higher than the 1.95% increase in alumina).

 

Imports of alumina in the performance of sluggish in 2016, from January to September China's total imports of 2.1697 million tons of alumina, down 30.95%; 1-September China's total exports of 82,500 tons of alumina, down 56.18.1- September net imports of 2.0872 million tons of alumina.

 

Sluggish non-metallurgical grade monthly demand for alumina in accordance with the estimated 170,000 tons, 2016, 1-9 months of China's alumina supply and demand gap of 1,865,100 tons, and in October the monthly supply gap of 29 million tons. In November-December with the domestic alumina enterprises to resume production, the alumina gap will be significantly narrowed, we expect 11-12 month single-month alumina gap will narrowed to less than 50,000 tons.

 

To sum up, domestic alumina at the end of 2 months, although the supply gap significantly narrowed, but the balance of supply and demand has not yet reversed the state. Combined with alumina raw material prices support, the next two months, the domestic alumina market will continue to maintain a strong pattern.